CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has declining surrender signals, but end market loss risk still remains.

by
Alyssa Davidson

Posted: June 19, 2026 10:30 AM Updated: June 19, 2026 9:45 AM

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MorenoDV_, a researcher at cryptocurrency analytics firm CryptoQuant, published an analysis suggesting that Bitcoin may be approaching a late-stage surrender phase, although the market has yet to provide definitive confirmation of a bottom. The study highlights a notable shift in seller behavior and raises questions about whether the current correction is nearly exhausted or whether another downward move is still needed before a larger recovery emerges.

Analysis shows that Bitcoin is entering a critical period of loss realization, but the current market structure is different from the first major decline earlier this year. Data from the 30-Day Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that investors are still recognizing losses, but at significantly lower magnitudes than during the initial sell-off period.

Earlier this year, the market absorbed realized losses of around 400,000 BTC, and the current wave has reached around 234,000 BTC despite Bitcoin trading at similar price levels.

The decline in realized loss intensity suggests that much of the panic selling may have already occurred. While previous corrections saw weak holders exiting the market in greater numbers, current price levels appear to be encouraging a less aggressive capitulation. This indicates that the pool of sellers willing to take losses and liquidate their positions may be reduced.

Additional support for this view comes from the buy/sell pressure delta indicator. Selling activity is still evident, but has not reached the extreme levels typically associated with major capitulation events. Historically, similar market situations have emerged after a significant portion of speculative or weak participants have already left the market. However, there have been times when one last selling push was needed before a durable bottom was formed.

The broader picture is less conclusive. MorenoDV_ pointed out that while the one-year net realized profit/loss indicator is still negative, it has not yet reached the deep negative levels that have historically accompanied major Bitcoin cycle lows. This suggests that although market stress remains high, the situation is not yet completely similar to the previous bottom phase.

As a result, the analysis concludes that Bitcoin may be in a late-stage correction, characterized by weaker loss intensity and a reduced presence of weak sellers. However, confirmation of the market bottom has not yet been made. The key question is whether realized losses will continue to decline while prices stabilize, a pattern that could signal seller fatigue, or whether another decline will cause realized losses to spike again and trigger a final surrender event.

Market decline deepens amid geopolitical uncertainty

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,656, down 2.46% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $64,270 and a low of $62,280. According to CoinMarketCap data, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 2.29% over the same period to $2.16 trillion, and 24-hour trading volume decreased by 11.14% to $73.74 billion.

Bitcoin’s decline follows a broader market decline that saw the asset fall to a range of $62,000 from $67,000 earlier in the week. The correction coincided with new geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which is weighing on risk sentiment across global financial markets. Despite ongoing regional tensions, oil prices continued to slide throughout the week, further complicating investor expectations.

As a dedicated journalist at MPost, Alisa specializes in the broad areas of cryptocurrency, AI, investing, and Web3. With a keen eye for new trends and technologies, she provides comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers about the ever-evolving digital financial landscape.

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