Bitcoin is retreating from the upper boundary of the rising channel on Powell’s last FOMC day, with a daily MACD bearish crossover confirmed and price retreating towards key SMA support. In this article, we analyze what signals the daily charts indicate, where prices may head next, and why the Fed’s transition to chairman Kevin Worthy is adding new uncertainty.
summation
- Bitcoin is trading at $75,834, down 0.67% in the April 29 session, with a daily MACD downward crossover confirming a shift in momentum.
- The price has retreated from the upper border of the rising channel and is now pressing the SMA 20 at $75,685 as immediate support.
- If SMA 20 fails, the next level will be SMA 50 near $72,082. A confirmed close above $80,000 would invalidate the bearish setup.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the day after hitting a high of $77,904 before sellers reasserted control over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. The decline came as Jerome Powell held his final FOMC press conference before his term ends on May 15 and the daily MACD histogram flipped negative for the first time in weeks, a sign that the momentum that drove the 21% recovery in April is starting to wane.
Daily MACD bearish crossover at descending channel resistance
The daily chart shows Bitcoin exploring two overlapping structures. The rising channel from the February low near $59,000, defined by two parallel blue trend lines, remained intact and constituted a full recovery through April. However, a wider descending channel formed by two red trend lines leading from the February high near $85,000 is limiting the macro recovery, and the SMA 200 remains within that upper limit with key overhead resistance at $84,423.
The price tested the upper area of the rising channel near $78,000 on April 28 before retreating sharply to hit a current session high of $77,904 before falling to $75,834 at the time of writing. The important technical development on today’s daily chart is the MACD. The MACD line reads 1,650.21, the signal line reads 1,815.33, and the histogram reads -165.13, confirming a bearish crossover on the daily time frame. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe told
Key levels: support, resistance, price targets
Immediate support is the SMA 20 of $75,685 and the price is currently under pressure. The daily close below removes the first dynamic buffer and focuses on the SMA 50 at $72,082 and the SMA 100 at $72,659. Both converge into a tight cluster near the $72,000-$73,000 area, which analysts identify as the lower boundary of the rising channel. A confirmed close below $72,000 will break the ascending channel structure and initiate a retest of the $65,000-$68,000 range. Here, a lot of on-chain accumulation occurred during the Iranian-led correction in Q1 2026.
On the positive side, $80,000 remains a major resistance level and a bullish target that will nullify the current bearish MACD reading. Above it, the SMA 200 at $84,423 and the upper boundary of the descending red channel indicate that bulls at the macro level need to liquidate for a confirmed structural trend reversal. If we see volume above $80,000, our short bias will shift back to neutral.
ETF Flows and Derivatives Context
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $89.68 million on April 28, breaking an eight-day streak of inflows totaling $2.43 billion, according to data tracked by crypto.news. Bitcoin has fallen after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings within 48 hours of a decision, according to data published by Phemex. This pattern occurs as traders unwind their buy positions prior to the event, rather than the interest rate decision itself. The current setup, in which BTC entered the FOMC on a 21% rally in April with the Fear and Greed Index near 40, closely mirrors the previous setup, which resulted in the steepest decline following the meeting.
Powell’s departure and Wash’s uncertainty
This meeting poses additional uncertainty beyond the interest rate decision. Powell’s term ends on May 15, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to preside over the first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. As crypto.news reported, institutional trends have proven sensitive to changes in the Fed’s communication tone throughout 2026, and oil prices near $105 per barrel are putting additional pressure on interest rate cut expectations. Wash’s hawkish reputation on Powell could shift the June dot plot in a direction that strengthens the liquidity outlook for risk assets, and the post-FOMC 48-hour window on April 30 and May 1 could be an important test of whether this downtrend stabilizes or extends to $72,000.
If Bitcoin has an SMA of 20 at $75,685 and claws back $77,500 at the daily close, the ascending channel remains intact and the bearish MACD crossover could be a temporary signal. A close below $72,082 would confirm that a deeper correction is underway.