The market for Trump’s suspension of tariffs increases, but Bitcoin’s recovery may not be maintained.
After steep drops, can Bitcoin and stocks be built here, or are they still ready to re -evaluate the tensions of China’s temporary temporary temporary suspension?
Trump pause
On April 9, President Donald Trump posted an unexpected update on the truth society and temporarily withdrew one of the most aggressive trade policies in memory.
In a simple but influential message, he announced a 90 -day mutual tariff that affects more than 75 countries and replaced it with a simplified 10% fixed rate. China is the only exception.
The announcement was made after intense weekly in the market, and the rapid volatility was displayed due to the initial tariff hiking of 11%to 50%over a wide range of US trading partners.
Political pressure, financial market instability and diplomatic anxiety appear to have influenced the White House’s decision. Some trade partners warned that the rapid escalation of tariffs is at risk of tilting the United States due to a recession.
According to Scott Bessent Finance Minister, the original tariffs are always designed as strategic “leverage.” In that sense, he pointed out that they achieved their purpose.
More than 70 countries have now discussed trade with Washington, and major allies, such as Japan and the EU, expressed their willingness to negotiate.
But most countries have been temporarily retreat, but China is still ideal. The Trump administration has already disciplined the tariffs on Chinese products from 104%to 125%rather than relieving positions.
Escalation responded to China’s own retaliation measures, which included 84%of tariffs on US imports. Without back back, the US-China trade confrontation seems to be in a deeper stage.
In response, CITI revised China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast and lowered it from 4.7%to 4.2%, citing trade uncertainty as a key element.
How did the mayor respond to this sudden policy pivot, revealing the current economic emotions, and a place where digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) can be released in the near future.
Wall Street regains the lost land
Rabbitx’s CEO MING WU said in a monopoly dialogue with Crypto.news that the temporary suspension of tariffs showed a change in trade policy and helped to calm the investor’s fear of wider economic falls.
“Due to the extended decline, many traders have occupied a short status. Unexpected duty suspension triggered a short quiz, and a short seller buys stocks to deal with his position, amplifies the upward momentum, and responds with a wide range of optimism with a wide range of optimism. We welcomed the uncertainty caused. ”
In the United States, the stock index has surged. The S & P 500 increased 9.52%, the most powerful one -day profit for 16 years. NASDAQ Composite has risen 12.16%, the most impressive rally since early 2001, while DOW Jones’s industrial average rose to 7.87%, adding almost 3,000 points.
This profit has helped to flip the significant part of the vibration in the market value that has disappeared over four previous trading sessions, and many of them are due to the fear of the economic impact of tariff escalation.
Among the rally, Goldman Sachs, who had previously warned that the risk of recession has risen, withdrew its prediction in light of its policy reversal.
Opened on April 10, positive momentum was expanded to the Asian market. Nicky in Japan surpassed more than 9% and rapidly popped up from 4% reduction the day before. Korea’s KOSPI rose 6.6% after entering the Bear Market territory at the beginning of the week.
Hong Kong’s HANG SENG has recovered by 2% since the worst decline since 1997.
In Europe, the market has been synchronized with global rebounds. The EURO Stoxx 50 rose almost 6% during the day session, and after the European Union was strengthened by previous measures to approve retaliation tariffs, Trump’s withdrawal almost immediately continued.
Ursula Von Der Leyen Chairman of the European Commission welcomed the US decision and called it a “stabilization stage” and showed a broader will to return to the negotiation table rather than deepening trade disputes.
The encryption market reflects a similar improvement. The BTC rose more than 6% for 24 hours after the news, reaching $ 81,650 at the time of writing on April 10. The rebound dropped sharply during the initial tariff -out, with Bitcoin falling 10% to about $ 74,500.
Although it helped to summarize some of the losses, the BTC was 13% lower than the previous year and about 25% lower than the all -time high.
The market cap of global encryption has increased from $ 2.38 trillion in early April to $ 26 billion at $ 2.38 trillion, adding about $ 220 billion in the last 24 hours.
Digital asset -connected stocks have also joined the rally. The fine straight (MSTR) surged almost 25%, the coinbase (coin) added about 17%, while Robinhood gained about 24%.
Grayscale’s Zach Pandl pointed out that continuous trade tension between the United States and China could weight the US dollar and stoke inflation pressure.
Inflation, liquidity and dollar dilemma
Trade disputes between the United States and China continues to intensify, which has an impact on the encryption market that reflects the global economy and macro sensitivity.
According to the World Trade Organization, long -term trade friction between the two largest economies can reduce the quantum trade of the product by up to 80%.
The United States and China account for about 3%of the world’s trade, but their influence forms monetary mechanics in the supply chain, pricing power and developed markets.
If tension develops into more permanent divisions, some analysts call the “2 block world” can reduce the long -term actual GDP by 7% depending on the WTO. In that sense, the market rally on April 9 reflects relief, not determination.
Meanwhile, the 7% increase in Bitcoin was parallel to the interests of the stock, pointing out the continuous connection between encryption and wider risk feelings. Bitcoin’s current correlation with about 0.7 stocks is no longer moving on its own basis.
Inflation prospects add another layer. The US inflation is expected to remain between 2.8%and 3%over the next few months, and the G20 inflation is nearly 4%.
Of these, stronger dollars can put pressure on emerging market currencies, contributing to imported inflation in many regions.
For encryption, this creates an unusual mix. On the other hand, the risk of inflation often pays attention to Bitcoin as an alternative asset. On the other hand, stronger dollars and larger global liquidity tend to reduce speculative appetite in emerging markets, which are often more practical and value preservation.
Policy response is also fluid. The Federal Reserve Paeded Citrates the issue of inflation, and paused the plan to cut the rates by citing movements that limit the availability of low capital in the short term.
Meanwhile, global currency supply growth (M2) is still in place, but if inflation persists, the cushion may disappear annually.
If interest rate cuts are pushed beyond Q3 and US financial yields are close to the current level (about 4.3%), growth assets, including encryption, may face new pressure.
Rally with thin ice?
Despite the rapid rebound of Bitcoin after suspension of tariffs, analysts are divided into the next one.
From a technical point of view, traders are closely watching from $ 83,000 to $ 85,000 as a short -term test for Bitcoin. According to the market analyst DAAN CRYPTO Trades, this area is consistent with the four -hour moving average, which has repeatedly pursued price attempts over the past few weeks.
“$ 83,000 to $ 85,000 is the core level of the bull’s overtaking,” he said. If Bitcoin has a powerful trading activity, it will be known to catch false brake out or liquidity if it falls below $ 81,100.
Looking at the bigger picture, some market observers are skeptical that the rally is the beginning of the continuous rise. Jeff Park, the head of Alpha Strategic, I think that the macroeconomic conditions are still so easy to break.
He points out structural pressure from 10% tariffs, 10 -year financial yields of more than 4%, and points out credit spreads that remain wide at 400 Basis Points.
He argues that these liquidity still reflects a thin market. “It’s more important to have little liquidity in the market to experience the casino swing,” he said.
With this lens, short -term rally may not be informed of the true intensity. Instead, they can reflect the amplified volatility with cold headlines and shallow spells rather than deeper structural support.
Meanwhile, Merchants Edward Morra believes that the market is still weak in the territory. “We are in the bear market. It’s unfortunate, but we can’t deny it,” he said. His view is that if Bitcoin can decisively cut more than $ 94,000 and can’t maintain the level, the recent bounce should not be trusted.
He also points out the lack of interest in Altcoins. He says many people are not drawing meaningful capital. “Most powerful people try to print pride,” he warned.
The main level to watch in the short term is technology and policy. Bitcoin, which has more than $ 81,000, can build a foundation. Continuous movement over $ 85,000 can bring momentum buyers, while all fullbacks can test recent support.
In the macro front, the progress of trade negotiations, signs of inflation relief, or clear guidelines for the Federal Reserve Bank can help to find more stable footprints.
At this time, it remains a market that requires both curiosity and stock. Do not invest more than you are wisely traded and ready to lose.
Public: This article does not show investment advice. The contents and materials introduced on this page are used only for educational purposes.