Crypto analyst Eric Krown recently discussed the current state of the cryptocurrency market, pondering whether the ongoing dynamics indicate a significant departure from historical patterns. Crown said it was important to rely on hard data and analytics given “this time is different”.
Krown begins by examining historical data related to Bitcoin’s previous halving events, indicated by green bars. He notes a consistent trend in which Bitcoin experiences a rally before each halving, typically reaching around 70% from the previous high. However, he pointed out a notable deviation from the current rally, with Bitcoin currently trading around $51,100, exceeding its previous high by about 30%.
Next, Krown analyzes Bitcoin’s behavior in relation to Fibonacci levels, especially after reaching highs. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise to Fibonacci levels of 50-61.8% and then retrace to 23.6%, finding support before further rises. However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin has surged more than 61.8% to trade above $51,000, a phenomenon that has not occurred in previous cycles.
Krown provided information on the recent price movements of Bitcoin, taking into account consolidation within a range defined by Fibonacci levels. He suggests that Bitcoin’s sideways movement and contraction in volatility could indicate that an uptrend is imminent. He also discusses the potential impact of altcoins, noting cyclical markets where other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum are gaining popularity.
The analyst recommends closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action, especially its ability to sustain above the $51,000 level. A daily close below this threshold could indicate a near-term correction with support around $48,000. However, Bitcoin’s continued sideways movement may suggest further upside potential.