Cryptocurrency market maker GSR has revised its estimate for the likelihood of spot Ether ETF approval in May to 20%. This is a significant decrease from the previous estimate in January, which had put the likelihood at 75%.
According to GSR analyst Brian Rudick, estimate changes can be influenced by several factors. Rudick highlighted the SEC’s lack of involvement, potential political pressure to approve a digital asset ETF, and ongoing scrutiny over whether Ether qualifies as a security. Collectively, these factors reduce the odds of approval.
Rudick also speculated that the approval process for a spot Ether ETF could extend into 2025 or 2026, potentially involving litigation due to the complexities surrounding the regulatory environment.
In a notable change, Rudick noted that some ETF applications have been modified to include Ether staking. This may improve the attractiveness of the ETF, but it also introduces additional complexity into the approval process. Rudick suggested the move could trigger a response from the SEC or represent a concession for delayed approval, potentially lowering May’s odds.
Similarly, Bloomberg ETF analysts have also adjusted their estimates, now putting the odds of May spot Ether ETF approval at 30%. This contrasts with previous, more optimistic forecasts indicating a challenging regulatory environment for Ether ETFs.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart sounded increasingly pessimistic as the deadline approached, noting the lack of progress in the approval process. Optimism surrounding the approval of the Ether ETF appears to be waning, with little movement observed.
Overall, GSR and Bloomberg analysts painted a cautious picture of the outlook for spot Ether ETF approval in May, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and the potential for an extended approval process.
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