Bitfinex warns of a market-defining month ahead: Important economic data could shift cryptocurrency sentiment

by
Alyssa Davidson

Posted: April 3, 2026 10:30 AM Updated: April 3, 2026 9:34 AM

by Anastasia Oh

Correction and fact check date: April 3, 2026, 10:30 AM

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Bitfinex has published its latest weekly cryptocurrency market analysis, outlining a critical four-week period that could determine whether expectations of a rate cut remain subdued.

The report identifies a series of key US economic data releases and the upcoming Federal Reserve blackout period as pivotal for both traditional and digital asset markets. Analysts note that these developments are expected to have a significant impact on risk sentiment and cryptocurrency flows.

The first key data point is the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, April 3. March employment figures are expected to show an increase of 40,000 to 85,000 jobs, with the consensus being around 60,000. This marks a recovery from an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs in February, which was well below expectations and a figure that analysts consider an outlier.

The report suggests that positive jobs growth could support risk appetite, while another negative print could raise expectations of interest rate cuts, which have traditionally been seen as favorable for cryptocurrency inflows. However, according to the analysis, recession risk is considered low as it is supported by capital spending and research and development of top S&P 500 companies along with government spending.

Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Outlook

Attention then turns to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday, April 9th. The index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Analysts expect inflation figures to continue to rise due to ongoing energy price pressures and rising service costs, which could further reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.

The follow-up Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, April 10 is also expected to show higher-than-expected numbers, further strengthening the prevailing no-cut narrative.

There is no expected change in interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on April 28-29. Market participants are likely to focus on the tone of officials at press conferences to gain insight into when policy adjustments may occur in the future.

On-chain indicators indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not overvalued. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is between 1.2 and 1.8, well below historical cycle highs. Recent buyers have suffered unrealized losses of around 28.5% over the past year, but the majority of holders are still holding on to their profits.

Bitcoin held on exchanges fell to a seven-year low at 5.88% of total supply, suggesting it was accumulated in long-term storage or ETF storage. Stablecoin market capitalization has reached an all-time high of $316 billion, indicating significant liquidity available for re-entry.

Overall, Bitfinex’s broader indicators of continued confidence in cryptocurrencies among long-term holders characterize the current market as a correction rather than a capitulation.

As MPost’s resident journalist, Alisa specializes in the broad areas of cryptocurrencies, zero-knowledge proofs, investing, and Web3. With a keen eye for new trends and technologies, she provides comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers about the ever-evolving digital financial landscape.

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