Bitcoin Price Prediction for January: Let’s take a look at how the BTC price prepares ahead of the SEC’s spot ETF decision.
Bitcoin investors have remained neutral in recent weeks following significant increases as the $44,000-$45,000 range continues to challenge the market’s patience. But the dream of ending the ongoing consolidation and potentially rising to $50,000 could become a reality in January as the SEC’s ETF decision gets closer. In this article, we will look at all potential price scenarios for Bitcoin in light of the ETF debut and evaluate the likelihood of a ‘sell the news’ event.
$42,500 was a strong accumulation point
With Bitcoin trading within a narrow price range of $42K-$43K, both buyers and sellers have been actively taking profits. Bitcoin liquidations totaled over $22 million in the last 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass. Of this amount, short positions accounted for $13.5 million, while buyers liquidated long positions worth $8.6 million.
However, Bitcoin trading activity near $42,500 has emerged as an important accumulation point for investors. Insights from IntoTheBlock show that Bitcoin’s Netflow has reached negative figures, averaging around 3,000 BTC every time the price hits $42,500. This trend indicates that the amount of Bitcoin leaving exchanges exceeds inflows at low price levels, indicating that investors prefer to accumulate rather than sell their holdings. This means that a strong support level has been established around Bitcoin’s $42,500 price range.
Moreover, historical data indicates a positive momentum trend for Bitcoin in January. According to Coinglass, over the past four years, Bitcoin price has had three strong Januarys, excluding 2022.
On average, Bitcoin is expected to rise 15% by the end of the month, pushing its price from $43,000 to around $49,000.
ETFs with great influence
Institutional acceptability also plays an important role. The potential approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, as seen with BlackRock’s filing in 2023, is expected to provide significant support from institutional investors.
According to Reuters, the SEC will soon approve the ETF by January 3, with launch expected on January 10. However, it is unlikely that the BTC price will exceed $50,000 this month. This is because the expected ETF approval has already driven prices higher, with miners and short-term holders enjoying high profit margins, which has historically led to price corrections. These holders are still making profits, but major rallies are usually followed by short periods of losses.
CryptoQuant predicts that BTC could fall to $32,000, the realized price for short-term holders, as traders are currently overpaying to open long positions. The ETF is expected to attract hundreds of millions of dollars to the market, and analysts suggest its launch could have a long-term positive impact on Bitcoin.
Some believe the anticipated approval will lead to substantial and sustained price increases soon after the decision. But others argue that this could lead to a “news-selling” scenario. However, considering both positive and negative scenarios in January, the BTC price is expected to hover within the $40,000-$50,000 range.