Bitcoin rose Tuesday, rising about 3% after President Donald Trump announced a five-day suspension of planned attacks against Iran. The relief rally pushed Bitcoin above $70,000. Nonetheless, the Bitcoin price remains about 45% below its all-time high of $126,000.
Meanwhile, top chart analyst Ali Martinez predicted that the Bitcoin price will fall to $40,000 by October 2026.
Bitcoin price cycle signal falls towards $40K
According to a chart shared by cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin continues to follow a recurring four-year cycle since 2011. The structure shows that each bull market begins only after the price enters the final discount phase. The current setup places Bitcoin near that stage.
However, the chart outlines a potential buying area between $41,500 and $45,000. This range has previously served as a base before major upward moves.
If the fractal holds, Bitcoin could fall towards the $40,000 region before forming a bottom. Martinez also pointed to the expected entry period between October 6 and October 16, 2026.
Historically, a similar period marked the end of consolidation and the beginning of a new four-year cycle. When Bitcoin moves out of this phase, price action typically accelerates quickly.
Retail Bitcoin demand collapses as small investors flee
Another warning comes from the decline in retail activity. Crypto analyst Crypto Tice said transactions under $10,000 are declining sharply, showing that smaller investors are withdrawing from the market.
Retailers’ 30-day demand trend has turned negative, suggesting that participation is weakening.
Early Bitcoin cycles show retail traders often exiting during final stage corrections. Volume tends to decrease before the price establishes a base.
A recovery in retail demand is usually followed by a broader rally.
Current settings produce mixed signals. Bitcoin is recovering in the short term thanks to easing geopolitical tensions, but participation from small investors remains weak. This combination often appears during the accumulation phase.
If the historical cycle repeats itself, Bitcoin could still face a downtrend to the $40,000 region before making ground.
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