As the whale voting distorts the results of the Zelenskyy litigation, the poly market is burning: What is happening?
Last month, when Ukrainian President VolodyMyr Zelenskyy came out of a black lawsuit, the world saw it except for Polymarket’s Oracle voters. The hinge of $ 160 million is about whether the truth can surpass the token weighty manipulation.
On June 24, Ukraine President VolodyMyr Zelenskyy arrived at Hague’s NATO summit and was immediately depicted by a reuters wearing a black military style jacket, a collar shirt and a pants that matched with a social media account in the BBC, New York Post and Polymarket.
Zelenskyy was preferred by this outfit, which was out of military invasion, headlines, memes and unexpected military fatigue after the hardship cryptographic dispute.
In PolyMarket, the predictive market asks if Zelenskyy will take a lawsuit before July. However, for several days after his appearance, the deep pocket traders flooded the market with “no” betting, and in fact, they exploited quirky in the Oracle system of UMA, which compensates for consensus on accuracy.
How to create a $ 160m real distortion of UMA’s Oracle incentives
At the heart of this problem is the UMA Oracle, a mechanism used to solve the market of the polymarket. The UMA system encourages participants to match the majority in match with the majority for compensation.
The voting is not the same. Their weight is determined by the number of tokens, not the number of voters. This creates a powerful asymmetrical. Single whales with enough tokens can swing the results regardless of the facts or intentions of the market.
The Zelenskyy market has exposed this flaw to high resolution. Despite the official NATO video, the UMA voters initially relied on “No.” that the Reuters’ “formal jacket” and even the tweets of the polymarket declared “President Jellen Ski” last night. Their theoretical basis: The previous market was similar to the military style costume in May, and this time, more than 50 major publications explicitly used the word “suit”.
When the official account (@polymarketintel) of Polymarket admitted the lawsuit and labeled it as retroactively, the merchant who bet “yes” was differentiated.
Martin shkreli vividly strengthened the criticism of market manipulation, and Polywhale Repellers, a group of dissatisfied traders, began to organize evidence of Oracle’s offense.
With the closing date of the decision on July 8, Nakjin can redefine the future of the predictive market. The result of “no” will verify the fear that whale capital can ignore the verified events. “Yes” can restore faith, but only if it is paired with meaningful Oracle reform.
Either way, the lawsuit has already exposed a $ 1 trillion question. Can the decentralized platform deal with the truth or can the house always win the casino?