Are consumers saying they don’t want the Vision Pro in the same way they once said they didn’t want the iPhone? Good point by Matthew Ball.

metaverse Author Matthew Ball (the guy we just talked about!) made a good point in the comments in response to the survey, with almost half of respondents saying: "never" I want Apple Vision Pro.

The problem, Matt points out, is that people were saying this about the iPhone before it was released in 2007.

I would venture to say that it would be foolish to say that (almost) anyone would “never” purchase a product that they have not yet tried (almost no one has purchased) at any price (implicitly in future revisions). Not much to say about the company that produces it.

To this end, we recall Universal McCann’s rather infamous study before the iPhone.

"The simple truth is: as with the iPhone, convergence is a compromise driven by financial constraints, not an aspiration. In a market where multiple devices are available for cheap, the majority prefer one device fits all." wrote the report’s author. "Only 31% of Americans surveyed said they wanted devices with a variety of features, and in Japan, that figure dropped to 27%. In the United States, 60% of cell phone users already own three or more specialized devices, including a digital camera, MP3 player, or portable media device.

"Demand was highest in Mexico, where 79% said they wanted one integrated device. Malaysia and Brazil had 72%, India had 70%, and the Philippines had 65%. However, mobile markets in these countries operate very cheaply or for free. Handset."

Of course, there is selection bias in collating failed studies with hit devices. This means that we do not verify the current or this product, nor HMD as a whole, at all. But the situation here is quite similar!

What’s also most interesting is that most of the consumers were from this segment. "developing" While the world was first to see the desirability of devices like the iPhone, much of the United States and Japan were not. But as Matt’s point about Apple suggests, the iPhone isn’t just about playing music, taking photos, and sending texts. iPhone does it all easily and beautifully.

This also brings to mind a point Jeff Yang made last year about how the existing desire for many screens at once could benefit the Vision Pro.

Apple has been making radical choices for years to create a new category of devices to replace computers.

To be clear, we know that Quest can operate standalone. I have one. But it’s not designed to be a true laptop replacement (at least not yet?). There really isn’t a world where you can spend eight productive hours a day on Quest.

Apple is taking a different path.

Of course it makes sense. They are each trying to future-proof their businesses.Zuck is trying to build the next social network, and Apple is trying to build the next general computing device..

Still the stickiest wickets are:

• Many people already know and cherish laptops and desktop PCs, and nearly half of the world’s population owns one at home.
• Almost everyone attaches great importance to the basic function of a smartphone: a mobile phone. 95% of Americans own some type of cell phone device.

In contrast, the mass market has still not embraced the form factor of head-mounted displays. As Matt noted in a recent report, two out of three Quest 2 owners don’t even use their device each month.

But (as Matt suggests) we’ll have to wait and see what happens when consumers get their hands on a real Vision Pro and put their heads down to figure out what they actually want.

Let’s discuss this weekend!