Bitcoin price prediction favors a retest of the $60,000 level after losing $65,000 support due to macro tensions and weakening sentiment.
summation
- BTC fell 27% in 30 days, marking its fifth straight month of declines.
- The $65,000 support was discontinued, bringing the focus to $60,000.
- CME futures positioning shows large traders reducing short exposure.
Bitcoin is trading at $64,846 at press time, down 4.6% in the last 24 hours. The asset is down 5% over the past week and is down 27% over the past 30 days.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin (BTC) has been declining for five consecutive months since hitting an all-time high in October last year. If the losses continue through the end of the month, it would be the second-longest monthly losing streak in Bitcoin history.
Market sentiment deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell 4 points to 5, deep into “extreme fear” territory.
Macro pressures focus on $60,000
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the cryptocurrency market remains fragile and traders are closely watching the $60,000 support level. She pointed to rising tensions related to Iran and uncertainty over new U.S. tariffs as key pressure points.
Last weekend, President Donald Trump raised proposed global tariffs from 10% to 15% via Truth Social. The move comes after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated previous emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA.
Trump then reimposed tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, claiming balance-of-payments problems. The policy change unsettled the broader markets.
Traditional safe havens such as gold and silver have responded more favorably than risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin still trades more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive hedge in its current environment.
Meanwhile, BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said Bitcoin needs to claw back $70,000 to regain bullish momentum. Analysts identified $65,000 as a key psychological and technical support level.
That level has now been broken. A sustained move below that increases the odds of a retest of $60,000.
Glassnode’s on-chain data adds to the downtrend. The 7-day EMA for Bitcoin net realized profits and losses is sitting at nearly -$480 million after plummeting to -$1.24 billion on February 6.
Although realized losses have eased at the highest surrender levels, the market is still dominated by selling segments. Glassnode noted that investor capitulation is still unfolding as Bitcoin works its way through a broader bottoming process.
Futures Positioning Provides Hints on Possible Base Formation
There are early signs that institutional positions may be changing. Large traders in CME Bitcoin futures have significantly reduced their short exposure, according to a recent report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Net positioning has changed from about +1,000 contracts a month ago to -1,600 contracts recently, suggesting that some institutional players may have switched from being net long to being net long. A similar positioning change occurred last April, resulting in a 70% increase in the price of Bitcoin.
But analysts warn that location data alone does not prove the bottom. Downside risk could be as high as $40,000 if critical support fails.