How many Vision Pro products will Apple sell this year? Sluggish AR headset sales suggest fewer than 250,000 units

Apple has revealed the release date of Vision Pro. "spatial reality" And while I’m as excited about the creative potential (at least as a niche product) as Om Malik, I’m skeptical of the broad declarations that we’re sure to see that 2024 will be the year. We have opened an era of spatial reality that changes the paradigm.

why? Even for Apple, the basic truth is that an augmented/mixed reality headset device costing around $3,500 will attract only the most demanding, hardcore consumers/developers. My prediction last month that the Vision Pro would sell fewer than 250,000 units in its first year still sounds correct, and it actually ranks second. optimistic side.

Here’s how the category is performing so far:

• Google Glass, which retails for $1,500, reportedly sold only 10,000 units in 2012, its first year on the market.
• Initially sold for $3,000 as a developer edition, Microsoft HoloLens only sold about 50,000 units in its first two years (2016/2017).
• The Magic Leap One Creator Edition, released in 2018 for $2,295, sold only 6,000 units in its first six months. In particular, the startup is expected to be sold. "At least" 1 million in the first year.

And then these three soda launches happened despite With the firepower of Google and Microsoft, Magic Leap received $1.4 billion in funding, backed by Google, AT&T, and Valley investors. I wholeheartedly accept the premise that Apple will do a much better job of execution-wise and create a truly magically compelling device. But even then, first-year sales will likely still be limited by the form factor’s high cost and historically low appeal. (Perhaps this will be a permanent barrier to mass market sales in the long run).

And as the Financial Times reports, Apple will actually only be able to produce about 400,000 units at launch. Long-time reader Martin K. believes this limited supply will paradoxically spark market interest.

Limited production capacity can limit availability, which can lead to several feedback loops.

For example, limited availability may lead to perceived scarcity, which may lead to increased perceived value, which may lead to increased demand, which may further limit availability.

and/or: Limited availability in the United States may cause Apple to delay launch in other countries, which could result in many U.S. sales moving to other countries, further limiting availability in the United States.

And/or limited availability may cause the used price of the device to rise, which may increase demand because more people will be willing to spend money if they can be sure they can sell the device used for not much less than what they paid. may increase. Unless they want to keep it.

Of course, Apple won’t like limited production capacity. But it seems inevitable this year.

That sounds pretty good! In any case, it’s highly unlikely that the Vision Pro install base will reach seven figures in its first few years on the market. This will not necessarily be a failure. Especially if VisionPro becomes a replacement for the Mac Pro for professional developers. But until Vision Pro sales reach the millions and tens of millions of units, one should be cautious about the rhetoric of the spatial computing era.

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