Bitcoin ETF Predictions for This Week: Here’s What BTC Price Could Do Potentially Impact Cryptocurrency Markets:
The Bitcoin community awaits in anticipation the SEC’s decision on the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, an important step toward strong cryptocurrency market adoption. Analysts suggest that an announcement from the SEC is likely this week, and Bitcoin’s price reaction to the news is likely to trigger significant market moves.
5% chance of rejection
Last week, representatives from investment management firms, stock exchanges, and the SEC met to consider final amendments to the filing of spot Bitcoin ETFs. That could pave the way for the first such funds to be approved in the U.S. as early as next week.
Executives and representatives of five companies, who requested anonymity because of the private nature of the discussions, reported contact with SEC officials regarding the S-1 prospectus document, which is required to be filed for all exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeking approval.
The issuer expects approval for its S-1 filing by the middle of next week, subject to minor changes requested by the SEC, including fee disclosures and market maker identities due Monday. The exchange is also finalizing the required filings for the spot Bitcoin ETF, with a key SEC decision on the Ark/21Shares ETF expected on January 10.
However, there is a 5% chance that the SEC will reject the ETF. The chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF being rejected have decreased from 10% to just 5%, according to Bloomberg analysts. Potential reasons include: Ark withdrawing its March guarantee, the SEC filing a new challenge or overriding the court decision, and intervention by the Biden administration now looking unlikely.
Additionally, Better Markets urged the SEC in a recent letter to reject spot Bitcoin ETPs, including ETFs, citing potential investor harm due to widespread fraud and manipulation in the Bitcoin market. I did. Dennis Kelleher, the organization’s president, called for the need to protect investors and retirees, warning against legalizing what he views as risky financial products. He argued that rejecting these proposals was a legal requirement.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Impact
Numerous analysts have predicted strong long-term growth in the price of BTC, and Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein has stated that the ETF could significantly expand Bitcoin’s investor base by leveraging approximately $30 trillion in advised assets. Nonetheless, despite the optimistic long-term outlook for Bitcoin price, CryptoQuant warns against a potential immediate ‘sell the news’ reaction.
CryptoQuant expects the price of Bitcoin to fall to around $32,000 next month following the approval of the spot ETF. This may be because traders’ unrealized profits are at a point that usually leads to market corrections. The NUPL indicator is currently trading at 49.4% and heading towards believe/deny territory.
However, we expect Bitcoin price to decline in the near term following ETF approval, potentially breaking the $45,000 consolidation phase and challenging the $48,100 resistance level. We expect these barriers to be quickly overcome as long-term holders become more confident in maintaining their positions.
Nonetheless, BTC price may slow down once it reaches the $50K-$52K range due to the exodus of short-term holders. Afterwards, momentum could build again, pushing the overall cryptocurrency market value to over $2 trillion.