The 12 -year trend asked the dust
As of March 14, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) When measuring gold (XAU), it slipped below the long -term upward trend line. This is not just a blip. It is a solid line for more than 10 years. Northstar, a big follower, says that if Bitcoin goes below a week or less, it can be a toast of 12 years of bulls. Longer drops? It is a neon sign that blinks “Bear Market Preview”.
Gold shines brightly while Bitcoin is accidentally found
Meanwhile, gold is spending time for a while. It has recorded $ 3,000 per ounce today, up 12.8% since the beginning of this year. Bitcoin, so -called “Digital gold” So far, it has decreased 11% in 2025. The gap is a clear sign of a place where investors park money when they are shaken.
The way they build each year are as follows:
- Gold (XAU): +12.8%
- Bitcoin (BTC): -11%
ETF tells the same story
The ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) world shows the same division. The US -based SPOT GOLD ETF has reached $ 64.8 billion this year, while the Global Gold ETF has a $ 23.18 billion. Bitcoin ETF? They are bleeding. Bitcoin ETF has lost $ 14 billion. Investors clearly choose the side.
Why Gold wins
So what leads to this change? It is a mix of big picture worry and “safe safety” atmosphere.
- Trade Drama: President Trump’s tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada stimulate the economic jitter.
- The central bank is inventory: The United States, China and the United Kingdom are doing gold as if they are out of style.
- Safe shelter atmosphere: If the world feels uncertain, gold is stable, reliable and does not collide with the stock market.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is closer to wild cards. It is related to dangerous movements. The 52 -week correlation with Nasdaq is 0.76. When stocks are shaken, Bitcoin tends to feel.
Is this the end of Big Run in Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s current slide seems to be very similar to what was given between March 2021 and March 2022. bear market. At the time, the BTC vs. gold ratio showed a warning signal. The price of Bitcoin was rising, but the trailed by the relative robbery index or RSI disappeared. Now we are going forward quickly and we are seeing the same atmosphere. The BTC/XAU ratio was tested for major technology levels (50 cycles, two -week index moving average), just as before the last drop.
Must
The situation can be ugly if the BTC/XAU ratio falls below 50-2W EMA (sitting in 26 XAU). Bitcoin is less than $ 65,000 in the dollar, which can rotate 40% from $ 110,000 in January. If the pattern continues to play, you can turn to $ 34,850 with 200-2W EMA due to deeper collisions. It will be a cruel popularity.
Is there a possibility of a comeback?
Not everyone is ready to call. Some analysts believe that this is not a total collapse, but a hiccup in a wider bull market. If Bitcoin can keep 50-2W EMA to the floor, it can pop out again. However, if you have difficulties below that level, the case of the bear market becomes much stronger.
Bitcoin collapsed on gold It is a big signal. Investors are flocking to a safe shelter as the economic outlook becomes darker. More losses can occur if Bitcoin can’t return to this major support level. In other words, when the buyer goes up at the right moment, he is still shot in the turnaround. Now Gold steals spotlights and Bitcoin has become a slight basis for makeup.