Cryptocurrency gamblers have wagered a whopping $445 million on the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, sending election betting on Polymarket to unprecedented levels.
According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket’s cumulative betting volume reached $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This represents a dramatic increase from July 2023, when the platform’s cumulative betting volume was $283.16 million.
Polymarket allows users to bet on a variety of news events and bills itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” Users can bet on over 1,000 different outcomes, including the US presidential election, which has attracted significant attention in recent weeks.
The platform saw a surge in users and bets earlier this month after headlines about Harris’s possible Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on her Republican rival Trump.
Despite being a US-centric platform, Polymarket is not directly accessible to US users, who must use a VPN and a cryptocurrency wallet containing USDC to place bets.
Trump vs Harris Statistics
A week after President Joe Biden dropped out of the Democratic primary, Harris doubled the Democrat’s odds of winning from 18% to 38%. That increase came largely from a number of small bets, while Trump’s support came from a few big bets.
Despite Harris’ recent surge in support, Trump remains overwhelmingly favored by polymarket whales, who hold a sizable lead with a 59% chance of winning the election.
The platform’s interactive maps and trending market analysis reflect a dynamic and intense election season. Key battleground states are heavily Republican, while swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania favor Republicans, while Michigan favors Democrats.
In general, Republicans are preferred to control the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are preferred to control the House.
Kamala Harris currently has a 96% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, with Michelle Obama trailing at 2%. Josh Shapiro leads the race for the Democratic vice presidential nomination with 32%, while Mark Kelly is close behind with 29%.
Bettors give Kamala Harris a 60% chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump has a 38% chance.